Tree Mortality Risks Under Climate Change in Europe: Assessment of Silviculture Practices and Genetic Conservation Networks

نویسندگان

چکیده

General Context: Climate change can positively or negatively affect abiotic and biotic drivers of tree mortality. Process-based models integrating these climatic effects are only seldom used at species distribution scale. Objective: The main objective this study was to investigate the multi-causal mortality risk five major European forest across their range from an ecophysiological perspective, quantify impact management practices on identify threats genetic conservation network. Methods: We process-based model CASTANEA simulate Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Pinus sylvestris, pinaster , Picea abies under current future climate conditions, while considering local silviculture practices. assessed by a composite index (CRIM) risks carbon starvation, hydraulic failure frost damage. took into account extreme events with CRIM max computed as maximum annual value . Results: physiological processes' contributions differed among species: it mainly driven for P. sylvestris Q. petraea damage starvation combination F. sylvatica Under climate, projections showed increase but decrease abies, little variation harshest scenario, decreased mean increased had no two broadleaved species. By year 2100, 38–90% network gene units extinction ( =1), depending Conclusions: Using allowed us disentangle multiple climates. Taking positive effect CO 2 fertilization water use efficiency, average may in sites. However, events, our pessimistic those obtained using bioclimatic niche models.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2296-701X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.706414